modelScenario_2
2nd Scenario
Information
This is the first modification proposed by Jay Forrester in his WORLD2 model. The utilization of natural resources is reduced in 1970 to 25% of their former value in order to extend their availability.
References:
- Cellier, F.E. (1991), Continuous System Modeling, Springer-Verlag, New York, ISBN: 0-387-97502-0, 755p.
- Forrester, J.W. (1971), World Dynamics, Pegasus Communications, 160p.
Simulate the model across 200 years, and plot the state variables as well as the quality of life as functions of the calendar years:
I had to artificially extend some of the tabular functions, because our software complains when an interpolation function attempts an extrapolation.
Parameters
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real | Population_0 | 1650000000.0 | World population in 1900 |
| Real | Pollution_0 | 200000000.0 | Pollution in 1900 |
| Real | Nat_Resources_0 | 900000000000.0 | Unrecoverable natural resources in 1900 |
| Real | Cap_Invest_0 | 400000000.0 | Capital investment in 1900 |
| Real | CIAF_0 | 0.2 | Proportion of capital investment in agriculture in 1900 |
| Real | BRN | 0.04 | Normal birth rate |
| Real | CIAFN | 0.3 | CIAF normalization |
| Real | CIAFT | 15.0 | CIAF time constant |
| Real | CIDN | 0.025 | Normal capital discard |
| Real | CIGN | 0.05 | Normal capital generation |
| Real | DRN | 0.028 | Normal death rate |
| Real | ECIRN | 1.0 | Capital normalization |
| Real | FC | 1.0 | Food coefficient |
| Real | FN | 1.0 | Food normalization |
| Real | Land_Area | 135000000.0 | Area of arable land |
| Real | NRI | 900000000000.0 | Initial natural resources |
| Real | POLN | 1.0 | Normal pollution |
| Real | POLS | 3599900000.0 | Standard pollution |
| Real | Pop_dens_norm | 26.5 | Normal population density |
| Real | QLS | 1.0 | Standard quality of life |